Market View: Week of September 25, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
University of Michigan consumer sentiment was finalized at 48.1 in September, slightly above the preliminary reading of 47.8 but down from 51.7 in August as views of personal finances in the near-term economic outlook deteriorated.
Inflation concerns remained elevated, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.6% from 4.0% and 5-10-year expectations increasing to 3.4% as higher fuel prices and broader cost of living concerns continue to weigh on consumers.
The S&P Global U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 58.7 in September from 56.5 in August, above expectations of 56.0 and signaling an acceleration in services sector activity. (Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicate contraction).
Within the reading, strong demand supported increased hiring, while higher energy and transportation costs contributed to renewed inflationary pressure.
Manufacturing activity strengthened in September with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rising from 57.0 from 53.9, above expectations of 53.6.
Within the Manufacturing PMI survey, production, new orders, and employment improved, while supply chain delays and higher input costs pointed to continued inflationary pressure.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Strong business activity, alongside weakening consumer confidence, points to an increasingly uneven economy, with corporate momentum remaining resilient even as households remain more cautious.
Continued strength in demand and hiring suggests the economy may be able to sustain above-trend growth in the near term, reducing concerns around an immediate economic slowdown.
Persistent cost pressures complicate the outlook for interest rates, as resilient growth combined with elevated inflation could keep monetary policy tighter for longer and place additional pressure on interest rate-sensitive areas of the economy.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
Investors face a data-heavy week highlighted by the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and consumer spending on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing on Thursday, and Friday’s September Employment Report.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
The upcoming data should provide a clear read on whether recent economic strength is carrying into the fourth quarter, particularly as business activity remains strong while consumer confidence has weakened.
Labor market data will be an important test of whether hiring remains resilient, with a meaningful slowdown in job creation potentially signaling that higher interest rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on the economy.
Inflation remains the key variable for the Federal Reserve (Fed), and another firm PCE reading alongside resilient spending and employment could reinforce expectations that interest rates may need to remain higher for longer.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 9/25/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3YR | 5YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.23% | 3.52% | 14.09% | 17.92% | 23.52% | 13.30% |
| NASDAQ | 2.07% | 3.40% | 16.98% | 21.11% | 28.35% | 13.29% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 0.28% | -0.57% | 9.13% | 13.89% | 17.57% | 10.36% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 0.02% | -1.56% | 13.50% | 14.16% | 18.18% | 7.68% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | -0.79% | -5.92% | 15.31% | 18.00% | 18.82% | 6.22% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 0.20% | 1.37% | 10.95% | 17.61% | 18.68% | 8.91% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 1.29% | 1.11% | 25.22% | 33.19% | 24.95% | 9.07% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond | -0.82% | -2.88% | -2.28% | -0.99% | 4.22% | -0.59% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | -0.92% | -1.14% | 0.80% | 2.24% | 8.30% | 3.68% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | -0.76% | -2.07% | -2.27% | -1.55% | 3.91% | -1.94% |
OBSERVATIONS
U.S. large-cap equities moved higher last week, led by the tech-oriented NASDAQ, which gained +2.07%, while the S&P 500 rose +1.23% and the Dow Jones gained +0.28%.
Technology and growth-oriented stocks led the advance, supported by strength in AI-related companies.
Small and midcap stocks lagged, with the Russell 2000 falling -0.79% and the Russell Mid-Cap essentially flat at +0.02% as higher interest rates continued to weigh on more rate-sensitive areas of the market.
International equities were positive, with developed markets gaining +0.20% and emerging markets rising +1.29%.
Fixed income moved lower alongside small and mid-cap equities, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index falling -0.82%, international bonds declining -0.76%, and high yield bonds falling -0.92% as stronger economic data, inflation concerns, and weak Treasury bond auctions pushed yields higher.
BY THE NUMBERS
Nor’easter Makes Its Presence Felt: A powerful Nor'easter battered the East Coast from North Carolina through New England over the weekend, bringing damaging winds, flooding and widespread power outages. Hundreds of thousands of customers lost electricity during the storm, with about 110,500 still without power by Sunday afternoon, including more than 21,000 in New York and nearly 12,000 in New Jersey. More than 5,000 U.S. flights were delayed and nearly 550 canceled, while Boston’s Logan Airport experienced a temporary ground delay. The storm also produced significant coastal flooding and dangerous surf, with the National Weather Service expecting heavy rain to persist into Monday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. At least one person was killed after a tree fell in Brooklyn, while New York declared a state of emergency across New York City and several surrounding counties.³
Stars, Stripes and Singles Sunday: The United States rallied from a 10.5-to-7.5 deficit entering Sunday singles to defeat the international team 17-to-13 at Medina Country Club. The Americans won nine of the 12 singles matches and halved another, producing the most lopsided single session in Presidents Cup history. The victory marked the U.S. team's 11th consecutive Presidents Cup and improved its all-time record in the event to 14-1-1 (W-L-T). Jacob Bridgeman secured the clinching point with a 1-up victory over Min Woo Lee, while the U.S. overcame a four-point deficit after Friday and a three-point deficit entering Sunday. The international team's only Presidents Cup victory remains 1998, with the teams also tying in 2003.⁴
Disclosures
The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Osaic Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Osaic Wealth, Inc. (“Osaic”) or its affiliates.
Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Osaic Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Osaic Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Osaic has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Osaic is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss. In general, the bond market is volatile; bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.
Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
Securities and investment advisory services are offered through the firms: Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Osaic Institutions, Inc., broker-dealers, registered investment advisers, and members of FINRA and SIPC. Securities are offered through Osaic Services, Inc. and Ladenburg Thalmann & Co., broker-dealers and members of FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc., Osaic Advisory Services, LLC. and CW Advisors, LLC., registered investment advisers. Advisory programs offered by Osaic Wealth, Inc. are sponsored by VISION2020 Wealth Management Corp., an affiliated registered investment adviser.
_____
1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 9/25/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 9/25/26.
3 Nor’easter Makes Its Presence Felt | theguardian.com
4 Stars, Stripes and Singles Sunday | sports.yahoo.com
9148627