Market View: Week of Sept. 18, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

The Federal Reserve (Fed) met this week and decided to raise the level of interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75% - 4.00%.

• This marked the Fed’s first interest rate hike since July 2023, reversing course after a series of rate cuts that began in 2024 and continued through late 2025.

  • The decision to cut rates was unanimous on behalf of the committee, as the committee all saw inflation as a risk.

• Rising inflation, in part due to the conflict in the Middle East, was a big reason the Fed hiked interest rates. Outside of energy, however, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been above the Fed’s 2% target for over 5 consecutive years

  • The Fed did note the strength of the economy and the job market, and did not believe that this interest rate hike would harm economic activity.

Retail sales, a broad measure of retail spending for the month of August, were released well above expectations, rising 1.2%.

• Excluding gas and auto prices, which can be inflated during periods of higher energy costs, retail sales actually rose 1.4%, highlighting the strength of the consumer in spite of higher gas prices.

Housing starts declined 2.6% to an annualized rate of 1.275 million homes started per year.

Building permits fell to an annualized rate of 1.394 million homes permitted per year.

• Both of these numbers falling is indicative of rising interest rates, which tend to slow homebuilder sentiment and demand for housing from consumers.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

The Fed raising interest rates will have an immediate effect on things like credit card interest rates and borrowing costs, but for consumers who have net assets instead of net liabilities, they will benefit from higher interest rates on things like high-yield savings accounts and money market funds, which should move higher.

Retail sales increasing suggests that despite higher prices and an uptick in inflation this year, consumers are still spending on a variety of things, from staples like food and gas to discretionary and hobby items.

This report was a strong reading ahead of the holiday spending season, but it could have been higher as back-to-school spending kicked into gear.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

Investors will be looking forward to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which is released on Friday and should show how consumers are feeling.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

Despite consumers continuing to spend, it is important to also monitor how the broad consumer base is feeling about the economy and the path of inflation moving forward.

Consumer sentiment is only slightly off the lowest reading ever hit in May of 2026.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 9/18/2026	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	-0.06%	2.27%	12.71%	16.14%	21.43%	13.14%
NASDAQ	0.73%	1.30%	14.61%	17.90%	25.54%	12.83%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.65%	-0.85%	8.82%	13.40%	16.43%	10.44%
Russell Mid-Cap	-1.17%	-1.58%	13.48%	13.81%	16.71%	7.82%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	-1.47%	-5.18%	16.22%	18.25%	17.70%	6.50%
MSCI EAFE (International)	-1.58%	1.17%	10.73%	16.90%	17.41%	8.81%
MSCI Emerging Markets	-0.56%	-0.18%	23.62%	30.03%	23.27%	8.57%
Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond	-0.03%	-2.07%	-1.46%	-0.44%	4.11%	-0.50%
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.28%	-0.22%	1.73%	2.94%	8.30%	3.85%
Bloomberg Global Agg	-0.63%	-1.31%	-1.52%	-1.33%	3.77%	-1.89%

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OBSERVATIONS

Equity markets were mixed last week, with the tech-oriented NASDAQ rising +0.73%, but the broad market S&P 500 was essentially flat (-0.06%), and the Dow Jones was negative, falling -1.65%.

• Tech rebounded after last week’s selloff, but most other areas of the market were negative.

Small and mid-cap stocks fell, potentially because of higher interest rates, which tend to impact them more.

International equities were also negative, with developed companies falling -1.58%, and emerging market equities performed better, but still fell -0.56%.

Fixed income mirrored what was seen in equities, with mostly negative performance. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was essentially flat, however, falling only -0.03%.

• International bonds (Bloomberg Global Aggregate) declined -0.63%, while lower-rated, high-yield bonds declined -0.28%.

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BY THE NUMBERS

Warren Buffett Steps Down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway:
Warren Buffett will step down as the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway effective immediately, the company announced Friday. His son, Howard—a Berkshire director since 1993—will replace him as chairman. Warren Buffett will now serve as chairman emeritus of the company and remain a member of the board. The move came a little more than nine months after Buffett retired as CEO of Berkshire and was replaced by Greg Abel. Buffett wrote in a letter to shareholders Friday that the timing to step down as chairman was right, as Abel had been “making the decisions that matter for some time” and had exceeded his expectations as head of the company.³

LSU’s College Football Playoff Odds Plummet After Ole Miss Loss:
Lane Kiffin, in his much-anticipated return to Oxford, fell to his former team, the Ole Miss Rebels. Kiffin's LSU Tigers, a team he spent more than $40 million to build into a national championship contender, got outplayed by the Rebels, falling 32-24. Safe to say this isn't the start Kiffin was hoping for after the university signed him to a record seven-year, $91 million contract. This loss to his former team comes amid a months-long dramatized exit which included in Lane Kiffin not coaching Ole Miss in their playoff berth last year, and leaving Ole Miss with a handful of its players and coaching staff coming with him to LSU. That doesn't leave much room for error for Kiffin's team, and anything more than two losses over that stretch would likely end their season.⁴