Market View: Week of Oct. 2, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

Job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079 million from July’s upwardly revised 7.335 million, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) characterized the August figure as “little changed.”

• Worker churn remained low as hires barely budged at 5.2 million, total separations held at 5.1 million, and quits were unchanged at 3.1 million (1.9% quit rate). The low-hire, low-fire balance continues.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in August, meeting consensus expectations, and stands 3.4% higher than a year ago.

• “Core” prices, which strip out the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% in August and 3.0% in the past year; both figures lagged consensus expectations.

Economic growth was stronger than previously reported, as the third and final Q2 estimate showed Real GDP increased at a 2.2% annualized growth rate, having been revised up 0.7% from the previous estimate.

• The upgrade reflected stronger consumer spending, investment, and government spending. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, consumer spending plus private fixed investment {and a key metric for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Warsh}, rose 4.6%.

The ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 54.5 in September, lagging the consensus expected 55.0, though remaining firmly in expansion territory as it has for the last nine consecutive months.

September payroll growth was essentially flat, as nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 while combined July and August figures were revised 60,000 lower than previously reported.

• The unemployment rate ticked up marginally to 4.2%, as did the labor force participation rate (61.8), and again the BLS said the labor market “changed little” in September.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

Recent reports indicate the economy is still growing at a healthy rate, although labor market momentum has slowed

• Consumer spending and business investment continue to drive economic growth, but cooling labor demand and negative revisions may keep the Fed from raising rates again later this month.

Despite modest improvement in the central bank’s preferred measure, inflation remains a key constraint on monetary policy and American consumers.

• Most market participants still expect another quarter-point increase before year-end, and rates will likely remain higher for a bit longer, but broad macro conditions are supportive of an eventual easing bias.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This week is fairly light on economic data, but ISM Services, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, and a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey will demand investors’ attention.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

Given the services sector accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, the forthcoming ISM report should provide a good indication of recent broad economic activity.

And Fed minutes will clarify how committee members are thinking about and planning to address those conditions with potential monetary policy changes.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 3/13/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	-1.56	-2.86	-2.86	19.1	20.83	12.59
NASDAQ	-1.23	-4.77	-4.77	25.29	25.48	11.48
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.91	-2.75	-2.75	14.15	15.25	9.34
Russell Mid-Cap	-2.21	0.85	0.85	16.07	14.37	6.98
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	-1.75	0.14	0.14	22.93	13.34	2.44
MSCI EAFE (International)	-2.02	0.61	0.61	20.67	15.74	8.27
MSCI Emerging Markets	-1.96	4.84	4.84	34.06	18.64	4.24
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	-0.92	-0.16	-0.16	4.94	4.06	0.28
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.77	-0.51	-0.51	6.91	9.2	4.3
Bloomberg Global Agg	-1.23	-0.96	-0.96	4.69	3.11	-1.58

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OBSERVATIONS

U.S. large-cap indices delivered mixed performance over the past week, as the Dow pulled back -1.25%, the S&P 500 declined a more modest -0.25%, and the NASDAQ improved +0.46%.

• AI-related companies led a relatively narrow advance of Technology and growth-oriented stocks.

The Russell Mid-Cap was the only other major index to register a positive return last week, but improved just 2 basis points, while the Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index pulled back just -0.11% despite continued higher interest rates.

International equities declined broadly, with developed and emerging markets falling -1.51% and -1.23%, respectively.

Fixed income markets were negative domestically, internationally, and across the credit spectrum, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond (-0.60%), the Bloomberg Global Agg. (-0.51%), and the Bloomberg High Yield Corporate (-0.65%) indices all declining last week.

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BY THE NUMBERS

Spending on AI Is Becoming Almost Impossible for Businesses to Budget: First, there was #tokenmaxxing, whereby American businesses encouraged their workers to use as much AI as possible. Then came the bill. Companies started to realize they need to be more careful about counting their tokens, the units that measure AI use. And that’s hard to do: A recent study found that only 11% of nearly 400 businesses surveyed were able to accurately forecast AI spending. Unlike traditional software, AI behaves more like a human worker: It takes action, makes decisions, sometimes even makes mistakes—all on the clock. While more-advanced models tend to cost more per token, they can sometimes perform tasks more efficiently, leading to lower overall costs. Likewise, asking a “cheap” model to do something it isn’t suited to handle could cause a token run-up.³

The College Football Stars Who Banked Millions – and Completely Flopped: It was the most crucial snap of the season, and time for Michigan’s $3 million investment to deliver. The Wolverines were fighting to keep their hopes in the Big Ten alive, trailing Minnesota 20-14 on Saturday afternoon, when sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood faced a fourth-and-5. Underwood dropped back, surveyed the field, and chucked a panicked throw straight out of bounds. The game was over. Michigan’s season almost certainly was, too. Two years ago, the Wolverines had thrown NIL money at Underwood, the country’s No. 1 high school recruit. It was a $3 million-per-year effort bankrolled in part by Larry Ellison and his wife, Jolin. But now, one of college sports’ most high-profile investments was amounting to nothing. “We might have to make some tough decisions here,” Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham said Saturday night, after the Wolverines dropped to 0-2 in the Big Ten. “The results are unacceptable right now.”⁴