Market View: Week of Nov. 6, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, beating expectations of 54.6 and marking the sector's 10th straight month of expansion.
Production rose to 59.0, its highest level since November 2021, and new orders edged up to 55.5.
The Prices Index fell 2.7 points to 75.2, partly reversing September's jump.
The ISM Services PMI slipped to 54.5 in October from 54.9, just below expectations of 54.8. This reading still marked the 28th straight month of expansion.
Business activity (53.8) and new orders (55.9) slowed after strong September readings, and employment improved to 51.4, its second month in expansion.
The Prices Index eased to 73.0 from 74.0 but has been above 70 in seven of the last eight months.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.5 million in September, well above expectations of 7.15 million.
Hires were little changed at 5.4 million. Quits rose to 3.4 million – a sign that workers feel confident about finding new jobs. Layoffs held steady at 1.6 million.
There were 1.1 job openings for every unemployed worker, up slightly from the prior month.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, far above expectations of 59,000 and the 48,000 average monthly gain over the past year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.
Professional and business services led the gains (+70,000), followed by health care (+42,000) and transportation and warehousing (+25,000). Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs.
August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.1% year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.2% in September. Wage growth is below September's 3.7% inflation rate, so purchasing power is shrinking.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
This week's data showed the job market firming after a soft summer, and both manufacturing and services kept growing. Demand tied to AI, data centers, and infrastructure continues to support factory activity. High prices paid in both ISM surveys suggest businesses have not yet passed all of the higher costs on to consumers.
After the stronger-than-expected jobs report, markets now see about a 77%–80% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates at its December 8–9 meeting. A strong job market gives the Fed more room to focus on bringing inflation down.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week investors will focus on October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. U.S. bond markets will be closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
CPI is expected to rise 0.3% MoM in October, down from 0.6% in September, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2%. There will be no YoY figures because the October 2025 CPI was never published due to a government shutdown.
With markets expecting a December rate hike, the CPI and PPI reports are among the last major inflation readings before the Fed meets. A cooler reading could ease pressure on the Fed, while a hot one would likely confirm a hike.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 11/6/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.67% | -3.51% | 8.78% | 10.90% | 20.54% | 11.02% |
| NASDAQ | -3.37% | -8.47% | 6.25% | 7.48% | 22.50% | 9.80% |
| Dow jones Industrial Average | -0.94% | 0.81% | 8.06% | 10.91% | 16.53% | 9.18% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | -2.05% | 1.07% | 13.04% | 14.56% | 18.04% | 6.61% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | -2.03% | -1.46% | 12.05% | 14.60% | 18.26% | 3.90% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | -1.84% | -2.57% | 7.50% | 12.27% | 17.59% | 7.88% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -4.08% | -11.80% | 8.83% | 10.95% | 18.64% | 6.04% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond | 0.40% | 2.85% | -0.15% | 0.30% | 4.78% | -0.20% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.80% | 2.26% | 7.87% | 3.66% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | 0.35% | 1.76% | -0.95% | -0.40% | 4.12% | -1.61% |
OBSERVATIONS
In a turbulent week for markets, an initially positive response to the midterm elections was later overwhelmed by a massive retreat from data center and AI-related stocks that dragged global equity indices lower.
Among major US indexes, the NASDAQ, which entered correction territory on Thursday, led the declines for the week (-3.37%), but the S&P 500 (-2.67%) and the Dow (-0.94%) also fell meaningfully.
Mid-cap (-2.05%) and small-cap stocks (-2.03%) also pulled back at the index level, as few areas of the equity market were spared.
Developed international markets also declined (-1.84%), while emerging market stocks fell substantially (-4.08%) due to close links with the data center and AI-related trade.
Bonds provided a singular bright spot as rates fell, along with declining growth expectations, and investors sought the safety of high-quality Treasurys.
Fixed income returns improved domestically (0.40%), internationally (0.35%), and across the credit spectrum (0.40%).
BY THE NUMBERS
US stocks lose over $3 trillion as Democrats’ midterm victory rattles Wall Street’s AI trade: US stocks suffered a massive selloff on Thursday, wiping out more than $3 trillion in market value in a single day, according to the Financial Times. The techheavy Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.4% as investors grew concerned that the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections could slow down the artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom that has driven Wall Street’s rally this year. The dramatic fall came after Democrats scored a major victory over Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Investors fear that the newly elected lawmakers could introduce stricter rules for the technology industry and put the brakes on the rapid expansion of AI data centers. According to Financial Times calculations based on FactSet data, the fall in the market value of the S&P Composite 1500, which tracks publicly listed US companies, was the biggest since the turn of the millennium.³
The $5 billion golf league you never watched is gone. Here’s why it flopped. LIV—a wildly expensive golf league that nobody asked for or watched—has finally gone kaput. What did we learn? Like I yell to my children at the water park arcade, there is no such thing as “unlimited funding.” From its inception, LIV’s power was its money, its ability to thunderclap generational wealth upon aging Phil Mickelson and other curious players to get them to join a noisy golf start-up named for its three-day, 54-hole format. LIV engineer Greg Norman liked to puff about disrupting a staid sport, but the mode of disruption was cash, Vuitton trunks of it, from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which freaked out the fusty PGA Tour because those PIF pockets werebelieved to be limitless.⁴
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 11/06/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 11/06/26.
4 The $5 billion golf league you never watched is gone. Here’s why it flopped.
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