Market View: Week of May 15, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
As expected, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hot again last month, rising 0.6% in April after increasing 0.9% in March. Consecutive months of sharply rising prices have pushed the annual headline figure to 3.8%, the highest level in three years. Higher energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict accounted for 40% of the overall monthly increase.
“Core” CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.4% in April, notching the highest monthly core reading in more than a year. o Core prices are up 2.8% from a year ago, noticeably higher than the 2.6% reading from just a month earlier, and still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) spiked 1.4% in April, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.5% and accelerating at the fastest pace in more than four years. The reading followed and upwardly revised 0.7% increase in March and pushed the year-ago headline comparison to 6.0%. Although energy prices alone increased 7.8%, inflation pressures proved more broad-based than just oil.
Producer prices excluding food and energy prices rose 1.0% in the largest move since early 2022. Nearly 60% of the April increase in PPI can be attributed to a 1.2% advance in the services index, which measures the margins received by wholesalers and retailers. Transportation and warehousing services, which are impacted by higher fuel costs that companies are passing along to customers, also increased notably.
Retail sales rose 0.5% last month, matching expectations, and were revised higher for previous months. While sales at gas stations jumped due to higher gas prices, gains were broad with nine out of thirteen major sales categories rising for the month. “Core” sales, which strip out autos, building materials, and gas stations, and are important for estimating GDP, rose a healthy 0.5% (0.8% when including revisions to earlier months).
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Although most market participants expect the effects of higher energy costs to reverse once the Iran conflict winds down and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, the timing of such a de-escalation remains uncertain, leaving the Fed with little conviction on monetary policy in the near term.
Housing rents were the primary driver of core inflation last month, but most of the increase reflected a one-off adjustment by the BLS to correct for distortions caused by the government shutdown last fall, and other recent data suggested that rents might finally be starting to turn over.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, investors will be monitoring a collection of housing market data, the final consumer sentiment reading for May, and U.S. leading economic indicators (LEI).
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
The sentiment reading will provide a critical look at the consumer after two months with higher gas prices.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 5/15/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD 1 | YR 3 | YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.17% | 13.62% | 8.70% | 25.85% | 23.37% | 13.80% |
| NASDAQ | -0.06% | 21.54% | 13.07% | 37.33% | 29.46% | 15.17% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.11% | 7.05% | 3.63% | 18.05% | 16.62% | 9.65% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | -1.46% | 6.63% | 8.01% | 15.90% | 17.06% | 7.73% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | -2.34% | 12.00% | 12.99% | 33.86% | 18.81% | 6.09% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | -1.56% | 7.25% | 5.92% | 21.55% | 15.39% | 8.51% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -2.45% | 19.70% | 19.51% | 45.06% | 22.26% | 7.60% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | -1.14% | -0.66% | -0.71% | 4.44% | 3.45% | 0.04% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | -0.49% | 1.38% | 0.88% | 6.99% | 9.02% | 4.28% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | -1.52% | 0.27% | -0.81% | 2.98% | 2.79% | -1.69% |
OBSERVATIONS
Although most major indices were positive through Thursday’s close, further uncertainty around a resolution to the conflict in Iran, a couple of hot inflation prints, and a lack of any material developments from Trump’s visit to China collectively took their toll on the last trading day of the week. All but the S&P 500 (0.17%) finished the week in negative territory.
The Dow (-0.11%) and the NASDAQ (-0.06%) both pulled back modestly, while Mid- (-1.46%) and Small-Cap (- 2.34%) stocks suffered more significant losses.
Developed market international (-1.56%) and emerging market (-2.45%) stocks also declined meaningfully.
Treasury yields rose significantly over the course of the week, driving bond prices lower domestically (-1.14%), internationally (-1.52%), and across the credit spectrum (-0.49%). Greater carry delivered by high yield bonds has led lower-quality credit to outperform YTD.
BY THE NUMBERS
Mark Rothko Abstract Sells for $85.8 Million:
A luminous, red rectangular abstract by Mark Rothko sold for $85.8 million on Thursday, a solid kickoff to what’s poised to be ebullient spring auctions in New York. The seller of the 1957 work, “Brown and Blacks in Red,” was the estate of former Goldman Sachs banker turned art dealer Robert Mnuchin, who paid $6.7 million for the work in 2003. The winning telephone bidder at Sotheby’s was anonymous. Following last fall’s art market turnaround, collectors have descended on New York for this weeklong series of auctions at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips, feeling increasingly confident about art values.³
He Plays Golf with Two Gloves – and This Oddball Just Carried Off a Major Title:
Aaron Rai wasn’t known to most golf fans before last weekend, but there has always been an easy way to pick him out on any course. Rai is the oddball wearing not one, but two gloves. Rai, 31, picked up the unusual habit as a kid in England, where his hands would get cold in the winter. […] To this day, no matter the conditions, he wears a pair of heavy-duty black gloves meant to help players grip their clubs in wet weather. And even though there wasn’t a single drop of rain on Sunday of the PGA Championship, Rai’s methods paid off on one of golf’s biggest stages. He’s now a major champion. […] At Aronimink Golf Club outside of Philadelphia, Rai surged ahead of a crowded leaderboard in the final round to take home the Wanamaker Trophy at 9- under par.⁴
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 5/15/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 5/15/26.
3 Mark Rothko abstract sells for $85.8 million
4 He plays golf with two gloves—and this oddball just carried off a major title
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