Market View: Week of Mar. 27, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
The Iran war remained the primary focus for markets last week as strikes continued and there have been no publicly announced signs from both parties that a resolution is near.
As the conflict looks to enter its fifth week, investors continue to assess how the war could impact global growth in the short and long term and the potential ripple effects across multiple asset classes.
U.S. export prices increased 1.5% in February, the largest monthly gain since 2022, and are up 3.5% year over year, indicating stronger global demand and higher prices for U.S. goods.
Most of the rise came from natural gas, crude oil, metals, and chemicals, showing continued strength in industrial and energy-related exports.
Likewise import prices rose 1.3% in February, the largest monthly increase since 2022, potentially signaling renewed cost pressure coming from overseas goods.
Fuel import prices rose 3.8%, led by higher petroleum and natural gas prices.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined from 56.6 to 53.3 in March, as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict pushed gasoline prices higher and weighed on stock prices.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose modestly by 5,000 to 210,000, largely in line with expectations and still consistent with a relatively stable labor market.
Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.82 million, which marked the lowest weekly level since May 2024.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Rising export and import prices point to solid global demand but also potentially signal renewed inflation pressures, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines from cutting interest rates soon.
Consumer sentiment may remain pressured as long as the conflict persists and energy prices stay elevated. However, real-time spending data suggests consumers are still spending steadily, indicating no clear signs of a slowdown as long as the conflict remains relatively contained.
Initial and continuing jobless claims indicate there hasn’t been a deterioration in employment conditions.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
During this holiday shortened trading week, investors will be closely watching retail sales, labor market reports, and manufacturing data.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
Despite consumer sentiment remaining low, consumers have continued to spend at a steady pace. The resilience in spending will be an important factor in sustaining overall economic growth.
After last month’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, this will be a key data release to see if hiring rebounds. Signs of stabilization in the labor market could further push back expectations for when the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates.
Manufacturing activity has gained momentum over the past couple of months. If this latest reading comes in above 50, it will mark three straight months of expansion, which hasn’t occurred since the second half of 2022.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 3/27/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.10% | -6.68% | -6.68% | 15.56% | 18.69% | 11.51% |
| NASDAQ | -3.22% | -9.73% | -9.73% | 21.70% | 22.24% | 10.59% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.90% | -5.65% | -5.65% | 10.48% | 13.81% | 8.49% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | -0.19% | -0.57% | -0.57% | 14.38% | 14.04% | 6.82% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 0.47% | -1.05% | -1.05% | 22.69% | 13.40% | 3.37% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 0.05% | -1.40% | -1.40% | 18.58% | 14.54% | 7.83% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -1.74% | 2.66% | 2.66% | 30.92% | 16.70% | 4.42% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | -0.12% | -0.79% | -0.79% | 3.81% | 3.60% | 0.14% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | -0.47% | -1.29% | -1.29% | 6.08% | 8.95% | 4.12% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | -0.49% | -1.59% | -1.59% | 3.83% | 2.48% | -1.65% |
OBSERVATIONS
Major U.S. large-cap indices finished the week lower amid continued market volatility and growing concerns about the potential impact of the ongoing U.S. – Iran conflict on economic growth
The Nasdaq led the decline for the week (-3.22%), followed by the S&P 500 (-2.10%), and the Dow Jones (-0.90%).
Mid-cap stocks also finished the week lower but held up better than large caps, declining -0.19%. Small-cap stocks were the best performer and posted a modest gain, rising +0.47%.
Developed international markets were flat for the week (+0.05%), while emerging markets posted weaker returns (-1.74%) as investors weighed the impact of energy supply disruptions on their economic growth.
Domestic and international fixed income indices moved lower the week as interest rates rose. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index dipped -0.12% while high-yield corporate bonds declined -0.47%.
International bonds also experienced lower returns for the week and finished down -0.49% as markets begin to price in the possibility of rate hikes.
BY THE NUMBERS
Pakistan Hosts Diplomatic Discussions on Ending War:
Pakistan will host Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt for talks on the Iran war as Islamabad positions itself as a potential venue for U.S.-Iran negotiations on the month-old conflict. The four countries' foreign ministers will hold "in-depth discussions on a range of issues, including efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region" during the two-day talks, Pakistan's foreign ministry said. The four nations have been involved in trying to mediate between Washington and Tehran in the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, and all are acutely vulnerable to threats to energy supplies and trade routes.³
TSA Workers Might Get Paid Monday, but Airport Woes Could Linger for Longer:
Transportation Security Administration officers could get their first full paycheck in more than six weeks as early as Monday after President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday instructing the Homeland Security secretary to pay them immediately. However, travel experts and labor leaders said the mammoth security lines at some U.S. airports would not disappear overnight and could linger into next week or longer while TSA workers wait for their back pay, airports assess their staffing and Congress remains at odds over funding the Department of Homeland Security. School districts and colleges across the country have upcoming spring breaks, and travel also picks up around holidays like Passover and Easter. A handful of airports experienced daily TSA officer callout rates of 40%. Nationwide on Thursday, more than 11.8% of the TSA employees on the schedule missed work, the most so far, the department said Friday.⁴
Disclosures
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 3/27/2026.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 3/27/2026.
3 Pakistan to host talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt amid Iran war diplomacy | Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-host-talks-with-saudi-arabia-turkey-egypt-amid-iran-war-diplomacy-2026-03-28/
4 TSA worker pay won't eliminate airport woes overnight, experts say | AP News - https://apnews.com/article/shutdown-tsa-executive-order-trump-c3c57b642efa1f29307e12e038c554d0
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