Market View: Week of Mar. 20, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above expectations, rising 0.7% month over month and 3.4% year-over-year (YoY), indicating stronger-than-anticipated producer price pressures.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was modestly softer on a month-over-month (MoM) basis but still came in above expectations at 0.5%, while the YoY reading also exceeded expectations at 3.9%.

• “Super Core” PPI (less food, energy, and trade) rose 0.5% MoM and 3.5% YoY.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, a broad-based measure of manufacturing activity in New York, fell to -0.2 in March 2026 from 7.1 in February, well below forecasts of 3.2.

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 8,000 from the previous week to 205,000 in the second week of March, firmly below expectations of a 2,000 increase.

Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1.86 million in the week ending March 7 of 2026 from 1.85 million in the previous week.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in an 11–1 vote, with one dissenter calling for a slight interest rate cut, reinforcing a cautious pause amid rising uncertainty

• No policymakers signaled a need for hikes this year, and maintained their prior forecasts for one cut later this year.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

Inflation came in hotter than expected, reinforcing concerns that progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains slow.

• This data was recorded prior to the Iran conflict, suggesting inflation readings could become more volatile in the coming months.

Near-term interest rate cuts appear unlikely, as elevated inflation combined with geopolitical uncertainty reduces the Fed’s flexibility to ease policy.

Labor market data continues to reflect a “low hire, low fire” environment, indicating limited movement in both hiring and layoffs.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This week we can expect to see updates on consumer sentiment, as well as the most recent import, and export prices.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

Consumer sentiment drives spending behavior, with stronger confidence supporting discretionary purchases and weaker sentiment leading to pullbacks.

Rising import prices can increase inflation and reduce purchasing power, while export prices tend to impact consumers more indirectly through economic growth and income trends.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 3/20/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	-1.87	-4.68	-4.68	16.25	19.22	12.33
NASDAQ	-2.06	-6.73	-6.73	22.49	23.07	11.19
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-2.09	-4.79	-4.79	10.42	13.96	8.98
Russell Mid-Cap	-1.21	-0.38	-0.38	13.37	13.69	6.89
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	-1.65	-1.52	-1.52	20.12	12.69	2.67
MSCI EAFE (International)	-2.06	-1.46	-1.46	17.27	14.96	7.7
MSCI Emerging Markets	-0.35	4.48	4.48	32.08	18.16	4.33
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	-0.51	-0.68	-0.68	3.89	3.72	0.24
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.31	-0.82	-0.82	6.12	9.1	4.35
Bloomberg Global Agg	-0.14	-1.1	-1.1	4.37	2.78	-1.57

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OBSERVATIONS

Markets moved lower during the week, pressured by ongoing Middle East tensions and continued swings in oil prices.

• Energy markets remained volatile as investors weighed the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz against occasional signs of easing tensions.

U.S. equities moved lower across the board, with the S&P 500 down -1.87%, the NASDAQ down -2.06%, and the Dow down -2.09% as investors digested geopolitical risks and shifting rate expectations.

Small and mid-cap stocks were slightly less negative, with the Russell Mid Cap down -1.21% and the Russell 2000 falling -1.65%, reflecting continued sensitivity to economic growth and financing conditions.

International equities also weakened with the MSCI EAFE down to -2.06% and MSCI Emerging Markets declining -0.35%, highlighting the global nature of the risk off sentiment.

Fixed income offered limited downside protection, as rising yields and rate volatility pushed core bond benchmarks modestly lower.

• Credit markets followed suit, with high yield bonds experiencing a decline of -0.31%.

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BY THE NUMBERS

The World’s Happiest Country:
For the eighth year in a row, Finland has taken the No. 1 spot on the World Happiness Report’s list of the happiest countries. The World Happiness Report ranked countries according to self-assessed life evaluations averaged over 2022-2024 and answers to the Cantril ladder question in the Gallup World Poll. It asks respondents to think of a ladder with the best possible life for them being a 10 and the worst being a zero. The Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford, which publishes the report, says that in addition to the Cantril ladder question, the report also considers the following six variables in the more than 130 countries ranked in the report: GDP per capita, Social Support, Health life expectancy, Freedom, Generosity, and Freedom of corruption.³

PwC Hiring More Graduates:
PwC, one of the world's biggest consultancy firms, plans to increase the number of graduates it takes on next year, brushing aside concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) was undermining hiring at the firm. Marco Amitrano said PwC had cut back on new graduate roles last year due to the flagging economy, not AI. In his experience new recruits came into the firm keen to be in the office and "hungry" to pursue a career, he said. Young people have been hardest hit by the recent rise in unemployment, prompting some to question the value of taking on large debts to obtain a degree. Younger workers have been characterized as a less resilient generation, but Amitrano said new hires to PwC, one of the UK's biggest graduate recruiters, had struck him as eager to learn and earn well.⁴