Market View: Week of Mar. 13, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to a 4.09M annualized pace, with the median home price up 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) to $398,000 and inventory increasing 4.9% YoY to 1.29M homes as affordability improved.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.4% YoY, matching forecasts, as gasoline and grocery prices rose while housing costs cooled.

Core CPI posted a 0.2% monthly increase and 2.5% annual rate, in line with expectations, helped by declines in used car prices and motor vehicle insurance.

Housing starts rose 7.2% to a 1.49M annualized pace, exceeding estimates as multifamily construction surged nearly 30%.

Building permits declined 5.4% to a 1.38M annualized pace, with single-family permits falling to their lowest level since August.

Real GDP growth for Q4 was revised down to 0.7% annualized growth from the prior 1.4% estimates, reflecting weaker consumer spending and exports late in the quarter.

Headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%, with services prices driving most of the increase.

Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) increased 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, matching economist estimates and reflecting persistent services inflation.

Job openings rose to 6.95M in January from 6.55M, while layoffs fell to 1.63M, hiring was largely unchanged, and the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio held at 0.9.

Consumer sentiment declined to 55.5 in March from 56.6, a three-month low, as households grew more concerned about rising gasoline prices.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

Most of this week’s economic data reflects conditions prior to the escalation in the Middle East, meaning the clearest early signals of geopolitical impact are likely to appear first in inflation and consumer sentiment.

Inflation data came in largely in line with forecasts, but the reports predate the recent surge in oil and gasoline prices, which could push inflation readings higher in the coming months.

Consumer sentiment fell to a three-month low, reflecting fragile household confidence that could weaken further if energy costs remain elevated.

Housing data showed improving sales and construction but weaker permits, suggesting stabilization in demand while the outlook for new supply remains uncertain.

Labor data points to a stable but cooling job market, with job openings rising and layoffs declining while hiring activity remains relatively modest.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This week brings Pending Home Sales, Producer Price Index, the FOMC meeting, and New Home Sales.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

These releases provide insights into housing demand, producer inflation pressures, and the Fed’s policy outlook.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 3/13/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	-1.56	-2.86	-2.86	19.1	20.83	12.59
NASDAQ	-1.23	-4.77	-4.77	25.29	25.48	11.48
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.91	-2.75	-2.75	14.15	15.25	9.34
Russell Mid-Cap	-2.21	0.85	0.85	16.07	14.37	6.98
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	-1.75	0.14	0.14	22.93	13.34	2.44
MSCI EAFE (International)	-2.02	0.61	0.61	20.67	15.74	8.27
MSCI Emerging Markets	-1.96	4.84	4.84	34.06	18.64	4.24
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	-0.92	-0.16	-0.16	4.94	4.06	0.28
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.77	-0.51	-0.51	6.91	9.2	4.3
Bloomberg Global Agg	-1.23	-0.96	-0.96	4.69	3.11	-1.58

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OBSERVATIONS

Markets pulled back for a third straight week as the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatility in oil markets dominated headlines.

• Crude prices swung as investors balanced their risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz against intermittent signs of possible deescalation.

U.S. equities moved lower across the board, with the S&P 500 down -1.56%, the NASDAQ down -1.23%, and the Dow down -1.91%, posting weekly declines as investors digested geopolitical risks and shifting rate expectations.

Small and mid-cap stocks underperformed, with the Russell Mid Cap down -2.21% and the Russell 2000 falling - 1.75%, reflecting continued sensitivity to economic growth and financing conditions.

International equities also weakened with the MSCI EAFE down to -2.02% and MSCI Emerging Markets declining - 1.96%, highlighting the global nature of the risk off sentiment.

Fixed income provided limited diversification as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index fell -0.92% and the Global Aggregate declined -1.23% amid higher yields and global rate volatility.

Credit held up slightly better than other bond sectors, with the U.S. High Yield down -0.77%.

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BY THE NUMBERS

Bam!:
Miami Heat star Bam Adebayo delivered one of the greatest scoring performances in NBA history, erupting for 83 points in a 150- 129 win over the Washington Wizards. The outburst ranks as the second-highest single-game total ever, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain's 100 points and surpassing Kobe Bryant's 81-point game from 2006. The bio shot 2443 from the field, hit 7 3-pointers, and went an incredible 36-for-43 from the free throw line, setting NBA records for both free throws made and attempted. He scored 31 points in the first quarter, 43 by halftime, and 62 by the end of the third, turning the night into a historic chase for the record books. The performance shattered his previous career high of 41 points and cemented his place among the most legendary single game scoring feats in league history.³

Big Apple, Bigger Budget Gap:
Moody's lowered New York City's credit outlook from “stable” to “negative” while keeping its Aa2 issuer rating, citing persistent multi-year budget gaps and weakening fiscal flexibility. The warning comes as the city proposes a $127 billion budget for FY2027 and faces a projected $5.4 billion deficit, raising concerns about long-term spending discipline. While the downgrade does not affect borrowing immediately, it signals that continued deficits could lead to a future credit downgrade and higher borrowing costs for the city.⁴