Market View: Week of Jun. 19, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The decision was broadly in line with market expectations.
The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed material upward revisions to both the 2026 and 2027 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation forecasts, which rose to 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively, signaling a slower return to the 2% target that the new chair once again reaffirmed.
More notable than the decision itself were the changes to the statement, which is now much shorter and simpler, the abandonment of forward guidance, and the announcement of five new task forces charged with examining and improving Fed operations.
Retail sales rose 0.9% in May, easily exceeding consensus expectations of 0.5% and accelerating from April. Retail sales are up 6.9% from a year ago.
Although the gain was largely supported by another meaningful jump at gas stations (+3.4%), the nominal increase was broad-based with 9 of 13 major sales categories rising for the month.
“Core” sales, an important estimate for GDP that excludes autos, building materials, and gas stations, rose a solid 0.6% in May.
Housing starts fell 15.4% month-over-month in May to an annualized 1.177 million units, sharply below consensus expectations for a modest pullback and marking the weakest pace since mid-2020.
Total starts were 8.7% below their May 2025 level, underscoring a clear downshift in residential construction momentum on an annual basis.
Single-family starts declined 1.9% on the month, but the headline weakness was dominated by multifamily. Starts in this category fell 40.2% since April, marking the steepest monthly drop since 2009 and the third-largest decline on record, dating back to 1959.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
For the Fed, employment forecasts remain solid and little changed, so inflation remains the primary concern. The possibility of a rate cut before the end of the year has all but evaporated, and according to futures markets, a rate hike may now actually be on the table, but most market participants expect the central bank to remain cautious on rate policy for the time being.
The upside surprise in retail sales data, combined with still elevated inflation projections, supports the Fed’s cautious stance on easing and contributes to the “higher for longer” narrative.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This holiday-shortened week, investors will be focused on U.S. retail sales and the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, highlighted by Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision and press conference as Chair.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
Personal income and new inflation data will be critical information for the new Fed Chairman as he works to update Fed operations and chart a new path forward for rate policy.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 6/19/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.96% | 15.19% | 10.20% | 27.20% | 21.18% | 14.12% |
| NASDAQ | 2.44% | 22.99% | 14.43% | 37.18% | 25.59% | 14.42% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 0.75% | 11.73% | 8.16% | 24.22% | 16.93% | 11.25% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 0.09% | 11.98% | 13.43% | 22.93% | 16.75% | 8.85% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 1.24% | 19.64% | 20.70% | 43.04% | 18.48% | 7.35% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 0.76% | 11.10% | 9.73% | 24.33% | 16.39% | 9.09% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 4.15% | 28.53% | 28.32% | 53.00% | 23.60% | 8.20% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | 0.14% | 0.54% | 0.49% | 4.74% | 4.00% | 0.06% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | 0.09% | 2.32% | 1.81% | 6.88% | 8.85% | 4.27% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | -0.28% | 0.81% | -0.27% | 1.81% | 3.21% | -1.57% |
OBSERVATIONS
The NASDAQ led all domestic indices last week with a return of 2.44%. The S&P 500 (0.96%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.75%) were both positive but trailed the tech-heavy index by more than 1%.
The Russell Mid Cap Index was essentially flat for the week, advancing 0.09%, while the Russell 2000 improved by 1.24%.
Developed international markets tracked closely to the Dow, with the MSCI EAFE returning 0.76%, but emerging markets surged more than 4% in the last week, continuing the strongest performance of any major index YTD.
Domestic fixed income markets moved higher, with the U.S. Agg returning 0.14% and high yield bonds gaining 0.09%, but international bonds declined 0.28%
BY THE NUMBERS
Alan Greenspan, influential economist and Fed chairman, dies at 100
Alan Greenspan, the influential economist who steered the United States' monetary policy during his five terms as chairman of the Federal Reserve under four presidents, died on Monday. He was 100. His death was announced by his wife, Andrea Mitchell, the chief Washington correspondent for NBC News. Greenspan served as chairman of the Federal Reserve for over 18 years, from 1987 to 2006, the second-longest term in the central bank's history. During his tenure, Greenspan became one of the most revered people not only in the United States, but around the globe. Steering the U.S. economy through the stock market crash of 1987, the dot-com bubble burst of 2000, the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, and the slowdown from 2001 to 2003, the data addict with a sly wit earned a reputation as a flexible, forward-thinking, quick-moving and consensus building economist.³
The hothead golfer who held his nerve to win the US Open
Last year, Wyndham Clark was the talk of the golf world— for all the wrong reasons. But on Sunday at this year’s U.S. Open, Clark’s nerves faced an entirely different test as he watched an enormous lead nearly evaporate at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club before the 32-year-old American kept it together and captured the second major of his career. Clark held on for a wire-to-wire victory at 4-under par, but it wasn’t the cakewalk it was shaping up to be entering the final round. After leading by six strokes through 54 holes, his advantage over Sam Burns was down to just one after only five holes. Burns, who was seven shots back entering the day, ultimately finished one back. For Clark, who had previously won the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club, the victory marked a return to the pinnacle of golf after his career had spun off track.⁴
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1. Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 6/19/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 6/19/26.
3 Alan Greenspan, influential economist and Fed chairman, dies at 100
4 The hothead golfer who held his nerve to win the US Open
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