Market View: Week of Jun. 12, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

The U.S. and Iran announced an interim peace agreement after nearly three months of conflict, including a ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.²

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, with shares surging 19% on their first day of trading.³

Headline inflation accelerated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) and 4.2% year-over-year (YoY), both in line with expectations, but up from 3.8% annually in April.

• The increase was primarily driven by higher energy prices, which accounted for more than half of the monthly gain, along with continued increases in shelter and food.

Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% consensus and 2.9% YoY, in line with expectations and only modestly above April’s 2.8% pace.

• Softer readings in motor vehicle insurance and new vehicles helped offset gains in medical care and airline fares.

Producer inflation surprised to the upside, with the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 1.1% MoM, above the 0.7% consensus, and 6.5% YoY, accelerating from 5.7% in April to its fastest pace since 2022.

• The upside surprise was driven largely by a 10.7% jump in energy prices, particularly in gas prices.

Core PPI was more moderate, increasing 0.4% MoM, slightly below the 0.5% consensus, while remaining at 4.9% YoY, below expectations for 5.4%, and unchanged from April.

• Inflation pressures outside of energy remain relatively moderate despite elevated headline readings.

Consumer sentiment improved modestly, with the University of Michigan preliminary index rising to 48.9 from a record low of 44.8 in May, beating expectations and marking the first increase in four months.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

The Iran truce reduced one of the biggest near-term risks, but it is still more of a pause than a durable resolution, so investors are likely to keep a geopolitical premium in place until the situation proves stable.

CPI and PPI were firm enough to keep inflation front and center, which means the Federal Reserve (Fed) has less room for interest rate cuts.

SpaceX's debut was well absorbed, supporting risk appetite without changing the broader macro story.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This holiday-shortened week, investors will be focused on U.S. retail sales and the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, highlighted by Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision and press conference as Chair.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

Investors will be looking for evidence that consumer demand remains healthy and whether the Fed reinforces a patient stance on rate cuts amid still elevated inflation and a resilient economy.

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MARKET UPDATE⁴

Market Index Returns as of 6/12/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	0.66%	14.10%	9.15%	25.84%	21.00%	13.47%
NASDAQ	0.71%	20.07%	11.71%	34.22%	24.88%	13.81%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.68%	10.90%	7.36%	23.39%	16.48%	10.32%
Russell Mid-Cap	2.38%	11.88%	13.33%	23.57%	16.59%	8.16%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	3.93%	18.17%	19.22%	41.91%	17.40%	6.18%
MSCI EAFE (International)	0.97%	10.27%	8.90%	21.60%	16.19%	8.39%
MSCI Emerging Markets	0.02%	23.41%	23.21%	46.88%	21.99%	7.02%
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	0.52%	0.39%	0.35%	4.86%	4.18%	0.05%
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	0.45%	2.22%	1.71%	7.09%	8.88%	4.24%
Bloomberg Global Agg	0.41%	1.09%	0.01%	2.00%	3.47%	-1.71%

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OBSERVATIONS

Major U.S. large-cap indexes rebounded modestly this week, with the S&P 500 gaining +0.66%, the NASDAQ rising +0.71%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding+ 0.68%.

Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers as their Russell Mid Cap Index advanced +2.38% and the Russell 2000 surged +3.93%, reflecting broadening market participation.

International equities also posted positive returns with developed markets (MSCI EAFE) gaining +0.97%, while emerging markets were little changed, edging up +0.02%.

Fixed income markets moved higher across the board, with U.S. bonds returning +0.52%, the high yield bonds gaining +0.45%, and international bonds advancing +0.41%.

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BY THE NUMBERS

SpaceX Shatters IPO Record:
SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history, raising $75 billion by selling more than 555 million shares at $135 each, implying an IPO valuation of $1.77 Trillion. On its first day of trading, the stock climbed 19% to close at $160.95, lifting the company's market capitalization to about $2 trillion and making it one of the world's most valuable public companies. The offering also made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper, reflecting the value of his substantial ownership. Despite the enthusiasm, the company reported a $4.3 billion first-quarter net loss, with some analysts arguing its valuation is well above traditional discounted cash flow estimates. Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether SpaceX can justify its premium valuation through continued growth in launch services, Starlink, and AI-related initiatives.⁵

Droughts Over:
It was a historic weekend for sports fans in New York and Carolina as two franchises finally ended decades-long championship droughts. The New York Knicks captured their first NBA title since 1973, defeating the San Antonio Spurs to bring home a championship 53 years in the making and erase one of the longest title droughts in major American sports. Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes claimed the Stanley Cup with a game 6 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights, securing the franchise's first championship since 2006. The Hurricanes' title capped a dominant postseason run and marked their second Stanley Cup in team history. Together, the victories delivered long-awaited celebrations for two passionate fan bases that had spent years waiting for another championship moment.⁶,⁷