Market View: Week of Jul. 10, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran deteriorated and Iran resumed attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, providing passive index investors with exposure to the company.
The recently public company was added to the index with an initial weighting of 1.30%.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index decreased to 54.0 in June but met consensus expectations. (Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while readings below 50 indicate contraction).
While some activity components moderated from May, hiring picked up and the employment index moved into expansion.
Additionally, the prices paid index decreased from 71.3 to 67.7, reflecting easing energy prices and marking its lowest reading since the onset of the Iran conflict.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that most policymakers would likely maintain or lower interest rates if inflation moves toward the Fed's 2% target.
Officials also noted that tariffs, higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and continued AI-related investments could keep inflation elevated and potentially warrant a more hawkish policy stance.
Weekly jobless claims reflected a stable labor market with initial claims falling from 217k to 215k and continuing claims seeing a modest uptick by 8,000 to 1.814 million.
Existing home sales trailed expectations and fell 2.4% month-over-month (MoM) to an annualized pace of 4.090 million.
Elevated mortgage rates continue to pressure housing affordability, weighing on home sales activity.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
While markets continue to price in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by year-end, this week's inflation report, along with the trajectory of energy prices and developments in Iran, will play a pivotal role in shaping their path.
Labor market data continues to indicate a stable job market, supporting household income and consumer spending, while ongoing strength in the services sector remains a key driver of overall economic growth.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, investors will be closely watching inflation data for June and retail sales.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a moderation in inflation, supported in part by lower gasoline prices. A softer-than-expected reading could shift market expectations away from the possibility of Fed rate hikes.
Retail sales have remained resilient, supported in part by larger tax refunds and positive wealth effects from higher asset prices. While growth is expected to moderate from the previous month, consumer spending continues to serve as the primary driver of economic growth.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 7/10/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.26% | 1.05% | 11.36% | 22.48% | 21.11% | 13.26% |
| NASDAQ | 1.74% | 0.27% | 13.44% | 28.45% | 24.92% | 13.15% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.48% | 0.64% | 10.46% | 20.61% | 17.49% | 10.68% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | -0.33% | -0.32% | 14.93% | 19.64% | 15.69% | 8.27% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | -0.60% | -1.52% | 20.71% | 34.89% | 17.48% | 6.94% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | -1.37% | 0.30% | 9.77% | 20.86% | 16.99% | 9.03% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -1.74% | -1.73% | 21.70% | 40.05% | 21.97% | 7.69% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | -0.44% | -0.58% | 0.04% | 4.04% | 4.23% | -0.12% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | 0.02% | 0.11% | 2.07% | 6.05% | 8.93% | 4.11% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | -0.40% | -0.47% | -0.69% | 1.11% | 3.31% | -1.73% |
OBSERVATIONS
Major U.S. large-cap equity indices ended the week with mixed performance as a handful of big tech stocks bolstered index returns.
The Nasdaq led the advance for the week (+1.74%), followed by the S&P 500 (+1.26%), while the Dow Jones retreated (-0.48%).
Mid-cap stocks finished the week in negative territory, declining -0.33%. Small-cap stocks also finished lower for the week, posting a loss of -0.60%.
Developed international markets trailed domestic equities and posted lower returns for the week (-1.37%), while emerging markets were the worst performer (-1.74%).
Domestic and international fixed income indices fell on the week as interest rates rose. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index dipped 0.44% as yields rose, while less interest-rate-sensitive high-yield corporate bonds were muted (+0.02 %).
International bonds underperformed for the week and finished down -0.44%.
BY THE NUMBERS
The World has an Anchovy Problem:
One of the world’s current hottest commodities is in the midst of a huge disruption. Global production has plunged as much as 40% from a year ago; prices are up 80% over the same period to an all-time high. The commodity in question? The humble anchovy. The anchovy sits at the bottom of a crucial supply chain that sustains the $500-billion-a-year global aquaculture industry. Anchovies are the main ingredient in fishmeal, and without enough of it, global production of salmon, seabass, shrimp, oysters and other seafood will suffer. The problem is that the 2026 El Niño, which meteorological agencies have just declared, is shaping up to be one of the strongest in modern history, crashing anchovy catches. If the industry’s fears are confirmed, salmon prices are likely to rise to an all-time high by 2027.³
Manhattan High-Rise Deemed Stable After Columns Buckled:
An under-construction Manhattan high-rise at risk of collapse was stabilized late Tuesday, and some evacuations of nearby buildings were lifted. The scene unfolded after columns were spotted buckling on Tuesday morning at the 1970s-era building, which is being converted into luxury apartments. Construction workers at the site and people in nearby buildings — including a school, diplomatic offices and several hotels — in the busy corridor of midtown were rushed out. City officials, going floor by floor, later found no further movement of the damaged columns, giving on-site contractors the green light to proceed with emergency repairs, his office said.⁴
Disclosures
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 7/10/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 7/10/26.
3 The world has an anchovy problem - MSN
4 Midtown Manhattan building deemed stable after evacuations | AP News
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