Market View: Week of Jan. 9, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, less than expectations of an increase of 60,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% from a downwardly revised 4.5% in November. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% in the month and are up 3.8% year-over-year.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reaffirmed a cooling labor market environment. Job openings decreased by 303,000 to roughly 7.1 million, the lowest level since September 2024. Hiring also fell, with about 5.1 million workers finding new roles compared to 5.4 million in October.
Nonfarm Productivity in Q3 increased to its highest rate since 2023, following an upwardly revised Q2 figure.
The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 47.9 in December, down from its prior reading of 48.2 in November. This marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction for the index.
The ISM Services Index increased to 54.4 in December, up from 52.6 in November. All four of the key drivers of ISM services (Business Activity, Supplier Deliveries, Employment, and New Orders) were positive for the month.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Unemployment ticking down signals that the labor market remains stable despite the decrease in job openings and hiring. Demand in manufacturing continues to struggle as higher costs tied to tariffs weigh on both producers and customers, limiting the sector’s ability to gain momentum. Rising nonfarm productivity, now at its highest level since 2023, leads to businesses operating more efficiently, helping support profit margins and earnings growth.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, investors will be closely watching the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the December Producer Price Index (PPI), and the November retail sales data.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
CPI and PPI will help shed some light on the current state of inflation, which remains above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Preliminary data indicate that consumers have positive expectations for their own financial situation and for the economy over the near and long term. Retail sales data will help provide some insight into whether this optimism is translating to actual spending.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 01/09/2026 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 1.58% | 1.80% | 1.80% | 21.08% | 22.87% | 14.41% |
| NASDAQ | 0.88% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 24.33% | 31.08% | 13.22% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 2.34% | 3.03% | 3.03% | 20.07% | 15.85% | 11.88% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 2.70% | 3.85% | 3.85% | 15.81% | 14.54% | 8.81% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 4.63% | 5.75% | 5.75% | 21.50% | 14.55% | 6.06% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 1.42% | 2.03% | 2.03% | 34.86% | 16.53% | 8.69% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 1.61% | 3.44% | 3.44% | 40.45% | 15.43% | 3.92% |
| Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond | 0.35% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 8.55% | 4.12% | -0.14% |
| Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp. | 0.39% | 0.39% | 0.39% | 9.01% | 9.19% | 4.54% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg | -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.16% | 9.42% | 3.34% | -2.09% |
OBSERVATIONS
Domestic equity indices finished the week positive, led by the Dow Jones up 2.34%, and the NASDAQ (+1.88%) and the S&P 500 (+1.58%) following behind.
Mid-cap (+2.70%) and small-cap (+4.63%) equities finished the week ahead of the S&P 500, both positive on the week leading all the major indices.
Both emerging (+1.61%) and developed international markets (+1.42%) finished the week positive, as investors continue to look abroad in the new year.
Fixed income indices were mixed, as the U.S. Aggregate Bond index and high yield bonds both were both in the positive, the international bond index lagged behind falling -0.03%.
BY THE NUMBERS
The U.S. Trade Gap Narrowed to Its Smallest Since 2009
The trade deficit—a measurement by which the cost of a country’s imports is worth more than its exports—shrank to $29.4 billion in October, the narrowest gap since June 2009 and a 39% decrease from September ($48.1 billion), the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Imports decreased 3.2% in the month to $331.4 billion from September, while exports jumped 2.6% to $302 billion, according to the agency. Wall Street expected the trade gap to widen to $60.6 billion, according to FactSet. The effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. was 17.9% in October, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.³
Record Bluefin Tuna Sale
A massive 243-kilogram (535-pound) bluefin tuna sold for a record 510 million yen ($3.2 million) at the first auction of 2026 at Tokyo’s Toyosu fish market. The top bidder for the prized tuna at the predawn auction on Monday was Kiyomura Corp., whose owner, Kiyoshi Kimura, runs the popular Sushi Zanmai chain. Kimura, who has won the annual auction many times in the past, broke the previous record of 334 million yen ($2.1 million) he set in 2019. Hundreds of tunas are sold daily at the early morning auction, but prices are significantly higher than usual for the Oma tuna, especially at the celebratory New Year auction. Due to the popularity of tuna for sushi and sashimi, Pacific bluefin tuna was previously a threatened species due to climate change and overfishing, but its stock is recovering following conservation efforts.⁴
1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 1/9/2026.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 1/9/2026.
4 Bluefin tuna gets record $3.2 million at first Tokyo auction | AP News
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