Market View: Week of Jan. 30, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at the first meeting of 2026.

• Stronger fundamentals showing meaningfully improved economic growth, stabilizing unemployment, and “somewhat elevated” inflation.

Separately, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

• Warsh served on the Fed’s board of governors from 2006 to 2011 and played a crucial role behind the scenes in Washington’s rescue of major Wall Street institutions during the financial crisis.

• Although he has generally aligned himself with the President as critical of the current Fed, Warsh still needs to be confirmed by the Senate but has been lauded by many market participants and Wall Street veterans as a fantastic choice and a staunch supporter of Fed independence.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5, from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December.

• Last month’s revision reversed an initially reported decline, but January’s preliminary results showed confidence resuming its downward trend after a one-month uptick.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% in December, coming in above the median forecast (0.3%) and the previous month’s reading (0.2%). Producer prices are up 3.0% from a year ago.

• Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7% last month and is up 3.3% since last year.

• Both food and energy prices actually declined in December, and broadly, goods prices were flat for the month, meaning the entirety of the increase in producer prices came from services.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

The news out of the Fed meeting this week was largely very positive – stronger growth and a stabilizing labor market encouraged all but two voting members to hold rates steady in January. Both dissenters voted for an additional 0.25% cut.

Importantly, the Fed believes the current monetary policy stance is roughly neutral, or at least not restrictive at current levels. Given stronger-than-expected growth, they have the time and the capacity to wait and see how things evolve from here.

Despite the upside surprise in PPI, inflation has seen little shift in either direction over the past year, which the Fed attributes to the impact of tariffs that is likely to ease in 2026.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

Employment will be the major focus for investors this week, with JOLTS (job openings), the U.S. employment report, and the unemployment rate due to be released.

ISM Manufacturing and Services reports will also be published this week.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

With employment and growth top of mind for policymakers, this will be a critical week of data for investors.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 1/30/2026	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	0.35%	1.45%	1.45%	16.35%	21.11%	14.99%
NASDAQ	-0.16%	0.97%	0.97%	20.31%	27.44%	13.25%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.42%	1.80%	1.80%	11.65%	14.94%	12.42%
Russell Mid-Cap	-1.15%	3.06%	3.06%	9.33%	12.47%	9.39%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	-2.07%	5.35%	5.35%	15.81%	12.19%	6.16%
MSCI EAFE (International)	1.56%	5.22%	5.22%	31.18%	16.17%	10.28%
MSCI Emerging Markets	1.80%	8.85%	8.85%	42.84%	16.74%	5.34%
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	0.03%	0.11%	0.11%	6.85%	3.65%	-0.20%
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.16%	0.51%	0.51%	7.70%	8.88%	4.54%
Bloomberg Global Agg	0.80%	0.94%	0.94%	8.56%	3.18%	-1.79%

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OBSERVATIONS

• Major U.S. large-cap indices finished the week lower, with the exception of the S&P 500, which improved 0.35%. The Dow (-0.42%) and the Nasdaq (-0.16%) both declined.

• Down-cap equities were hurt more significantly, with mid-caps and small-caps falling -1.15% and -2.07%, respectively.

• International markets carded a solid week of returns, as both developed international markets (MSCI EAFE +1.56%) and emerging markets (MSCI EM +1.80%), meaningfully outpaced domestic stocks.

• Domestic fixed income indices delivered modest gains, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 0.03%, while global bonds outperformed, climbing 0.80% on the week.

• Corporate credit, particularly lower quality credit, declined marginally on the week (-0.16%).

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BY THE NUMBERS

Carlos Alcaraz Beats Novak Djokovic:
Carlos Alcaraz can add a 2026 Australian Open title to his amazing tennis résumé. At the age of 22, the top-seeded Spaniard became the youngest player to complete the career Grand Slam, defeating 10-time Aussie Open champion Novak Djokovic in four sets in Melbourne. Alcaraz now has seven major titles, the most ever by a male tennis player before turning 23. "Nobody knows how hard I've been working to get this trophy," Alcaraz said during the trophy presentation ceremony. "I just appreciate this moment so much." Despite dropping the opening set and giving the 38-year-old Djokovic an opening to win his record 25th major title, Alcaraz upped his game and slowly began to wear the fourth-seeded Serbian star down. With an array of powerful forehands and skillful drop shots, Alcaraz pressed his physical advantage in the latter stages of the match, which took three hours and two minutes to complete. He finished off the match with the only service break of the fourth set to prevail, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-5.³

The Half-Billion Dollar Offseason That Rebuilt the Patriots Winning Machine:
In the fourth quarter of the final game of the 2024 regular season, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft made up his mind: He had to fire his coach. Jerod Mayo had been his handpicked successor to Bill Belichick, but now, just one year later, it was time for another change. It was a difficult—and expensive—decision. But when Kraft watched the team slump to a four-win season, he couldn’t shake the feeling that Mayo wasn’t quite ready for the top job. What nobody foresaw was the solution working so quickly. Mayo’s firing was the start of an offseason in which Kraft plowed nearly a half-billion dollars into the franchise—and saw instant dividends. Less than 12 months later, the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl, taking on the Seattle Seahawks with a chance to win a record seventh Lombardi Trophy.⁴