Market View: Week of Jan. 2, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

Over the weekend, the United States launched a special military operation that oversaw the capture of Venezuela’s President, Nicolás Maduro.

• Maduro was extradited to New York to face criminal charges for drug trafficking, with the U.S. alleging that he sat atop an illegitimate corrupt government that promoted illegal activity.

• Maduro’s capture comes amid stalled negotiations over Venezuela’s acceptance of deported immigrants and the granting of priority access to U.S. oil companies.

• Following Maduro’s extradition to the United States, President Trump stated that the U.S. would become more involved in Venezuelan affairs stating, “We’ll run it properly. We’ll run it professionally. We’ll have the greatest oil companies in the world going in and investing billions and billions of dollars.”²

The Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes to their most recent meeting in which they cut interest rates 0.25%.

• The minutes showed a level of dissent among the committee members on whether or not to cut rates at all, which is unusual for a group that normally acts unanimously.

Pending home sales increased 3.3% month-over-month, which was above the consensus expectations for a 2.4% rise.

• Typically, around this time of year, pending home sales are slow because of lower demand around the holiday season, a stark contrast to the acceleration seen in November.

• Home prices rose 0.4% in October, another sign of potential growth in the housing market

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

Although the operation in Venezuela is the largest U.S. involvement in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989, it is unlikely to broadly affect domestic equity markets. There could be localized effects on companies or industries with a large presence in the country, but given the small size of the country, and the lack of opposition towards the U.S. from Venezuela, it is unlikely there will be larger effects.

The momentum seen in the housing market recently marks a positive sign for homebuilding moving forward. As interest rates move lower more building is expected as more people can afford mortgages, however the increased activity may lead to higher home prices.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

During the first full week of the New Year, investors will focus on the labor market, as data on the unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll growth are set to be released. Additionally, investors will look for the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports for insights into the economy.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

The labor market has been a key point of focus for the Fed in deciding how fast they will lower interest rates. The weaker the labor market, the more inclined they will be to cut interest rates in 2026. Both of the ISM reports will give investors a look into how the service and manufacturing sectors of the economy are holding up.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 01/09/2026	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	1.58%	1.80%	1.80%	21.08%	22.87%	14.41%
NASDAQ	0.88%	1.86%	1.86%	24.33%	31.08%	13.22%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	2.34%	3.03%	3.03%	20.07%	15.85%	11.88%
Russell Mid-Cap	2.70%	3.85%	3.85%	15.81%	14.54%	8.81%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	4.63%	5.75%	5.75%	21.50%	14.55%	6.06%
MSCI EAFE (International)	1.42%	2.03%	2.03%	34.86%	16.53%	8.69%
MSCI Emerging Markets	1.61%	3.44%	3.44%	40.45%	15.43%	3.92%
Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond	0.35%	0.15%	0.15%	8.55%	4.12%	-0.14%
Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp.	0.39%	0.39%	0.39%	9.01%	9.19%	4.54%
Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg	-0.03%	-0.16%	-0.16%	9.42%	3.34%	-2.09%

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OBSERVATIONS

• Domestic equity indices finished the week down, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the way, falling -1.50%, and the S&P 500 (-1.00%), and Dow Jones (-0.66%) following.

• Mid-cap (-0.48%) and small-cap (-0.98%) equities finished the week ahead of the S&P 500 but were both negative on the week as the sell-off was broad based among U.S. stocks.

• Both emerging (+2.33%) and developed international markets (+0.55%) finished the week positive, as investors looked abroad to close out the year.

• Fixed income indices were mixed, as the international and U.S. Aggregate Bond Indices both fell, but lower quality, high yield bonds performed well, rising 0.20%.

• The strength of credit fundamentals has been a tailwind for high yielding fixed income assets.

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BY THE NUMBERS

The New York Jets Set a New League Record
With Sunday's loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Jets became the first team to finish a season without a defensive interception since interceptions were first counted as a stat in 1933. The Jets' takeaway troubles were well documented early in the season, as they didn't have one until Week 6 and didn't force another turnover until their 12th game of the season. While New York had four takeaways in the season, none came through the air. The second fewest interceptions in a season came from the San Francisco 49’ers in 2018, who still produced 2 turnovers via interception. The league average was 2.2% of passes were intercepted, which should have given the Jets 11 interceptions on the year. Despite having 0 interceptions, they did allow 36 passing touchdowns in the 2025 NFL season.⁴

New Years Resolutions Show More of the Same
As 2026 gears up, only 31% of Americans are poised to set a New Year’s resolution. Studies have found that younger Americans, those under 45, are nearly twice as likely to set a resolution for the new year. The most common resolutions are to exercise, be happier, and eat healthier. Saving more money is also among the top resolutions which are filled with topics around health, and money management.

The slate of 2026 resolutions closely mirrors those seen last year in 2025, with health and money management remaining consistent themes. Despite fresh optimism to start the year, 65% of people admit their resolutions last four months or less. Only 1% of people say their resolution lasts for the whole year.⁵