Weekly Market View: Jan. 16, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
Over the weekend, President Trump announced a new 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries starting February 1, with plans to increase the rate to 25% on June 1st if negotiations tied to Greenland do not progress. U.S. and European officials are expected to discuss this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and markets will be watching for any signs of de-escalation or policy clarity.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in December and 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), coming in below consensus expectations. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, matched expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Food prices rose 0.7% MoM, energy prices increased 0.3%, while core goods prices were unchanged.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% MoM in November and 3.0% YoY, matching expectations. Core PPI was unchanged on the month and also registered a 3.0 YoY reading. Energy prices jumped 4.6% in November, contributing meaningfully to the headline index reading.
Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose 0.6% MoM in November and 3.3% YoY. 12 of the 13 spending categories posted monthly gains, with the furniture category being the only decliner (-0.1%).
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Recent CPI data shows that goods prices remain largely stable and that inflation continues to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The PPI data tells a similar story, aside from a notable increase in energy costs in November, price pressures remain contained, suggesting limited impact from tariffs.
Retail sales indicate an overall resilient consumer helping support economic growth. Stronger wage growth and larger tax refunds in the first half of this year should provide additional spending power in the months ahead.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, investors will be closely watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and the second estimate of third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, has trended slightly higher in the second half of 2025 and is likely to remain elevated in year-end data as tariff-related increases potentially flow through. Meanwhile, the preliminary Q3 GDP report pointed to a rebound in economic activity after a volatile start last year, and the second estimate is expected to confirm that momentum remains intact.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 1/16/2026 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.36% | 1.44% | 1.44% | 17.22% | 21.98% | 14.66% |
| NASDAQ | -0.66% | 1.19% | 1.19% | 20.57% | 29.39% | 13.43% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.28% | 2.74% | 2.74% | 15.46% | 15.50% | 12.02% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 0.84% | 4.72% | 4.72% | 11.74% | 14.02% | 9.01% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 2.05% | 7.92% | 7.92% | 19.26% | 14.05% | 6.17% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 1.40% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 34.13% | 15.74% | 9.29% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 2.26% | 5.78% | 5.78% | 41.84% | 15.78% | 4.31% |
| Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond | -0.14% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 7.34% | 3.77% | -0.21% |
| Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp. | 0.17% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 8.33% | 8.87% | 4.55% |
| Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg | -0.16% | -0.32% | -0.32% | 8.26% | 2.75% | -2.05% |
OBSERVATIONS
Major U.S. large-cap indices finished lower on the week, as weakness in large-cap tech weighed on broader benchmarks.
The NASDAQ declined for the week (-0.66%), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.36%), and the Dow Jones (-0.36%).
Small cap (+2.05%) and mid-cap (+0.84%) stocks finished positive for the week, benefitting from a more optimistic economic outlook.
International markets also posted positive returns on the week. Developed markets rose +1.40% while emerging markets led the way and posted a return of +2.26%.
Domestic and international fixed income indices were mixed for the week as interest rates rose. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index dropped -0.14% while high yield corporate bonds advanced +0.17%. International bonds also experienced lower returns for the week and finished down -0.16%.
BY THE NUMBERS
Indiana Secures First Ever Football Title with 27-21 Win Over Miami:
The Indiana Hoosiers outlasted the Miami Hurricanes, winning their first football title in school history with a 27-21 victory Monday night. A program that had played in a grand total of 13 bowl games in the 130-some years before coach Curt Cignetti arrived in 2024 went on a historic run to a 16-0 season and a national title. Miami had a chance to steal the victory, driving down the field with under two minutes to play, but Miami quarterback Carson Beck threw a game-clinching interception with 44 seconds to play. Indiana's final record of 16-0 — aided by the extra games afforded by the expanded 12-team playoff — matched a perfect-season win total last compiled by Yale in 1894. In a bit of symmetry, this undefeated title comes 50 years after Bob Knight's basketball team went 32-0 to win it all in that state's favorite sport.³
Parts of Florida Receive Rare Snowfall as Freezing Temperatures Linger
A rare snowfall covered parts of the Sunshine State on Sunday for the second year in a row, while freezing temperatures will continue to grip parts of Florida into early this week. A storm system brought up to 2 inches of snow to southern portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola, on Sunday morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The snowfall occurred almost a year to the day after parts of Florida received record snow in mid-January 2025 — when Pensacola received between 6 to 8 inches of snow.⁴
1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 1/16/2026.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 1/16/2026.
3 Indiana secures first ever football title with 27-21 win over Miami - CBS News
4 Parts of Florida receive rare snowfall as freezing temperatures linger : NPR
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