Market View: Week of Feb. 6, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

A brief government shutdown delayed the release of certain labor market–related economic data, which is now expected to be released one week later.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a measure of manufacturing activity, came in stronger than expected at 52.6.

• A number above 50 signals that the index has been expanding, while a number below 50 indicates a slowdown.

• This reading was the first time since February 2025 that the manufacturing sector signaled expansion.

  • The growth was driven by higher production and higher demand for new orders.

The ISM Services PMI, a measure of how strong the service sector is, came in at 53.8, exceeding expectations for a decline.

• The reading was flat relative to last month and boosted by higher activity levels.

While a portion of jobs data was delayed due to the brief government shutdown, some labor market data was still released.

• Announced job cuts in January came in at 108,435 – much higher than anticipated.

• Job openings declined to 6.54 million – much weaker than expected.

• The number of job quits did rise slightly to 3.2 million, signaling people felt more comfortable leaving their jobs and were able to find work elsewhere.

Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan showed signs of recovery, rising to 57.3, which marked the highest reading since August 2025.

• Importantly, the inflation expectation for consumers declined to 3.5%, the lowest since January 2025.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

The ISM Manufacturing and Services data reflected an economy with ongoing momentum, showing expansion in manufacturing and services together for the first time since early 2025.

Within the labor market, nearly half of all announced job cuts came from two large employers, Amazon and UPS.

• Outside of those notable announcements, the labor market appears to remain in a stable environment with limited hiring and firing.

An increase in consumer sentiment could support higher consumer spending, which would provide a boost to the broader economy.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This week, investors will focus on inflation, delayed labor market data, and the monthly retail sales report for insights into the economy.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

High employment and low inflation are the two targets of the Federal Reserve (Fed), and these indicators will be key in shaping the potential path of interest rates.

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MARKET UPDATE²

Market Index Returns as of 2/6/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	-0.09%	1.36%	1.36%	16.51%	20.21%	13.93%
NASDAQ	-1.83%	-0.89%	-0.89%	18.73%	24.78%	11.51%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	2.50%	4.35%	4.35%	15.07%	15.80%	12.12%
Russell Mid-Cap	2.60%	5.74%	5.74%	12.15%	12.84%	8.77%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	2.18%	7.64%	7.64%	18.72%	12.21%	5.04%
MSCI EAFE (International)	0.51%	5.75%	5.75%	31.53%	16.58%	9.79%
MSCI Emerging Markets	-1.40%	7.32%	7.32%	38.89%	16.79%	4.03%
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	0.28%	0.39%	0.39%	6.74%	4.05%	-0.06%
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	0.11%	0.62%	0.62%	7.82%	8.76%	4.42%
Bloomberg Global Agg	-0.22%	0.72%	0.72%	7.82%	3.45%	-1.69%

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OBSERVATIONS

• A sell-off in technology stocks led to a split week for performance in U.S. equities. Tech heavy indices like the S&P 500 (-0.09%), and NASDAQ (-1.83%) sold off, but the Dow Jones, which is less tech-oriented finished the week strong, rising +2.50%.

• Down-cap equities, which also are less exposed to tech, performed well with mid-caps and small-caps rising +2.60% and +2.18%, respectively.

• Developed international markets returned +0.51% outpacing domestic markets, but emerging markets trailed, falling -1.40% for the week.

• Domestic fixed income rose, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index gained +0.28%, while global bonds reversed from the previous week’s strength, selling off -0.22%.

• Corporate credit, particularly lower quality credit, performed well, rising +0.11% for the week.

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BY THE NUMBERS

The 2026 Winter Olympics Have Begun:
The 2026 Winter Olympics are officially underway after Friday's Opening Ceremony festivities at Milano San Siro Olympic Stadium in Milan, Italy. The Opening Ceremony featured the expected Italian flair, with performances highlighting Italian culture and the nation's impacts on the world of music, art, theater, and fashion. The likes of Mariah Carey, Andrea Bocelli and Charlize Theron brought ample star power to the proceedings, with a message of unity and a call for peace as a through line of the evening. There was also the traditional Parade of Athletes, featuring thousands of competitors in this year's Games from the 92 National Olympic Committees, getting to walk under their nation's flag to celebrate their appearance at the Olympics. In a unique twist for this year's games, athletes walked out in all four cities hosting events so that those competing outside Milan could still participate.³

Japanese Prime Minister Wins A Historic Supermajority:
Japan’s conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi swept to a landslide victory in a snap election, marking a historic turnaround for her party, which had been hemorrhaging voter support in recent years — until she stepped to the helm. Since she was elected more than four months ago – becoming Japan’s first female leader in a country where men have long dominated politics – Takaichi has enjoyed sky high approval ratings. It was a gamble to call a snap election, but Takaichi hoped to translate her own popularity into a stronger mandate for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – which has been weakened in recent years by a scandal involving the misuse of political funds. Her risky move paid off. The LDP won more than 310 of the 465 seats in Japan’s lower house of parliament, marking the first time since World War II that a single party has secured a two-thirds majority. The broader ruling coalition won more than 340 seats.⁴