Market View: Week of Apr. 3, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
The conflict in Iran remained the primary market driver last week, with sentiment shaped by comments suggesting the U.S. may reduce its involvement in the region even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
As the war enters its sixth week, markets continue to evaluate the potential impact on global growth and inflation.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings in the US fell by 358,000 to 6.88 million in February 2026 from an upwardly revised 7.24 million in January, and below market expectations of 6.92 million.
Hiring and quit rates reached their lowest levels since 2020, falling to 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.
Retail sales in the US jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, above forecasts of a 0.5% gain, and rebounded from a 0.1% drop in January. This marks the strongest reading for retail sales in seven months.
Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, were up 0.5%, higher than forecasts of 0.3%.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.7 in March from 52.4 in February and exceeded forecasts of 52.5.
The reading pointed to the strongest growth in factory activity since August 2022 and marks the third consecutive month of expansion for manufacturing.
• The US economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the strongest gain since December 2024, following a revised decline of -133,000 jobs in February.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February, below expectations of 4.4%.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
A welcome rebound in March’s jobs data followed a weak report in February, underscoring labor market resilience and allowing the Fed to stay focused on inflation risks despite ongoing geopolitical pressures.
Retail sales, while somewhat out of date and reflecting conditions predating the conflict in Iran, indicate consumer spending remains on solid footing, despite weaker consumer sentiment recently.
Manufacturing continues to expand, suggesting a potential shift after a prolonged period of contraction. However, investors remain cautious following last year’s false start, given that manufacturers still lack clarity around tariff policy and the war in the Middle East.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, investors can expect updates on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and ISM Services.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
Upcoming PCE and CPI releases will provide a clearer view of recent inflation trends. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, PCE, will reflect February data due to delays from the government shutdown, while CPI will capture March pricing and offer a timelier look at rising prices following the onset of the conflict in Iran.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 4/3/2026 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3.38% | 0.84% | -3.53% | 31.35% | 18.72% | 11.99% |
| NASDAQ | 4.46% | 1.35% | -5.71% | 41.25% | 22.60% | 10.99% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 2.98% | 0.37% | -2.83% | 23.43% | 13.76% | 9.07% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 3.00% | 1.11% | 2.42% | 29.59% | 14.23% | 7.19% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 3.34% | 1.36% | 2.26% | 40.31% | 14.25% | 3.74% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 3.04% | 2.88% | 1.60% | 31.25% | 14.25% | 8.37% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 0.33% | 3.17% | 3.00% | 35.29% | 16.12% | 4.00% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | 0.96% | 0.21% | 0.17% | 3.66% | 3.40% | 0.34% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | 1.20% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 9.30% | 8.64% | 4.27% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | 0.78% | 0.26% | -0.82% | 2.94% | 2.39% | -1.43% |
OBSERVATIONS
Major U.S. large-cap indices ended the week in positive territory, breaking a five-week losing streak as optimism for a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East grew.
The Nasdaq led the rise for the week (+4.46%), followed by the S&P 500 (+3.38%), and the Dow Jones (+2.98%).
Mid-cap stocks also finished the week higher, increasing +3.00%. Small-cap stocks posted similar gains, rising +3.34%.
Developed international markets also benefitted from the rally (+3.04%), while emerging markets posted weaker returns (+0.33%) as investors continued to weigh the impact of energy supply disruptions on their economic growth.
Domestic and international fixed income indices moved higher on the week, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index climbing +0.96% and high-yield corporate bonds jumping +1.20%.
International bonds also experienced solid returns for the week and finished up +0.78%.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Mission Around the Moon:
NASA's long-awaited Artemis II mission has launched four astronauts on a 10-day journey around the moon. The rocket lifted off on April 1st at 6:35 p.m. ET from Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. The crew, NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Christina Koch and Victor Glover and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen, are the first people to launch toward the moon since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, more than 50 years ago. They are also the first astronauts whom NASA's giant Space Launch System rocket has launched into space. The mission does not include a lunar landing; rather, it is designed as a step toward a landing in 2028 and, eventually, toward NASA’s goal of establishing a long-term presence on the moon and building a base there. When they circle the moon, the Artemis II crew members could reach a greater distance from Earth than anyone has before.³
UCLA Wins its 1st NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship:
UCLA got to the Final Four on the strength of the nation’s best offense. UCLA stymied South Carolina, 79-51, on Sunday in the national title game to secure the program’s first NCAA championship. It was a dominant UCLA effort from the opening tip that turned into a runaway in the second half. The win denied South Carolina its third championship in five seasons and a fourth overall for head coach Dawn Staley. The Bruins now have their second national title after securing the AIAW championship in 1978. The NCAA took over the championship tournament in 1982. The championship is the first for Cori Close in her 15th season as UCLA’s head coach.⁴
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 4/3/2026.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 4/3/2026.
3 Artemis II launch recap: NASA launches first crewed moon mission since 1972
4 UCLA locks down South Carolina for dominant win, program's first NCAA championship - Yahoo Sports
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