Market View: Week of Apr. 24, 2026

ECONOMIC REVIEW¹

The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was extended again last week, helping stabilize sentiment and keeping diplomatic hopes alive, but progress stalled as planned peace talks were canceled, and both sides continued negotiating indirectly with no clear breakthrough.²

Despite the pause in direct fighting, tensions escalated at sea, with the continued U.S. naval blockade and Iranian retaliation, including ship seizures, mine threats, and sharply reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping roughly 20% of global energy flows disrupted, driving oil higher on the week.

U.S. retail sales surged 1.7% in March, exceeding expectations of 1.4% and marking the largest monthly gain in over a year following a revised 0.7% rise in February, driven in part by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts.

• Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose 0.6%, and the control group, which excludes sales of food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations, a key input for the government's calculation of goods spending in GDP, rose 0.7%, with nearly all major categories posting gains.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April from 53.3 in March, slightly above the preliminary reading of 47.6 but still the lowest level on record, with a decline observed across all demographics.

• One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 3.8%, marking the largest monthly increase since 2025.

• While long-term expectations climbed to 3.5%, the highest since October, reflecting broad-based increases in expected price pressures.

How does the most recent economic data impact you?

Elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict are feeding directly into inflation, which can delay interest rate cuts, creating a more challenging backdrop for both equities and bonds.

Consumer data shows a divergence with spending remaining resilient while sentiment weakens, suggesting near-term economic growth may hold up but face downside risk if higher fuel costs begin to pressure household budgets.

Markets have remained resilient and near highs, but continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained oil prices near $100 per barrel increased the risk of slower growth, corporate profit margin pressure, and potential market volatility.

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A LOOK FORWARD¹

This week, investors will be focused on the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), Q1 GDP, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?

Together, this data will show whether economic growth is reaccelerating, while inflation, particularly from wages and energy, remains elevated, shaping expectations for the Fed's policy path and the broader market outlook.

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MARKET UPDATE³

Market Index Returns as of 4/24/26	WTD	QTD	YTD	1 YR	3 YR	5 YR
S&P 500	0.56%	9.81%	5.05%	31.29%	22.40%	13.01%
NASDAQ	1.51%	15.05%	7.04%	43.78%	29.06%	12.95%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.41%	6.32%	2.93%	24.82%	15.78%	9.74%
Russell Mid-Cap	-0.38%	6.73%	8.11%	26.24%	16.65%	7.52%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap)	0.37%	11.68%	12.67%	44.23%	18.52%	5.60%
MSCI EAFE (International)	-2.74%	6.77%	5.44%	25.91%	15.12%	8.52%
MSCI Emerging Markets	0.85%	15.40%	15.21%	49.76%	21.43%	6.10%
Bloomberg US Agg Bond	-0.26%	0.62%	0.57%	5.10%	3.55%	0.24%
Bloomberg High Yield Corp.	-0.19%	1.78%	1.28%	8.80%	8.99%	4.41%
Bloomberg Global Agg	-0.64%	1.38%	0.29%	3.18%	2.92%	-1.51%

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OBSERVATIONS

Major U.S. large-cap indices ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 +0.56% and the Nasdaq +1.51% closing at record highs, while the Dow Jones slipped -0.41%.

Mid-cap stocks finished the week lower, dipping -0.38%, while small-cap stocks continued to move higher, rising +0.37%.

MSCI EAFE fell sharply on the week -2.74%, while MSCI EM rose +0.85%, as higher oil prices and a stronger dollar pressured developed international markets while commodity strength lifted emerging markets.

Domestic and international fixed income indices moved lower on the week, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index slipping -0.26% and high-yield corporate dipping -0.19%.

• International bonds sold off as well, falling -0.64% on the week

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BY THE NUMBERS

Numbers That Are Out of This World:
The Hubble Space Telescope celebrated its 36th anniversary with a new image of the Trifid Nebula, located roughly 4,000 light years from Earth. Since its launch on April 24th, 1990, Hubble has completed more than 1.7 million observations across a wide range of cosmic targets. These observations have supported approximately 23,000 scientific papers, making it one of the most productive instruments in astronomy history. The anniversary image highlights active star formation, including jets from a young star shaping surrounding gas and dust over millions of years. More than three decades in orbit, Hubble continues to deliver high-resolution data that advances understanding of how stars and galaxies evolve over time.⁴

Breaking 2: Electric Marathon Boogaloo:
Sabastian Sawe stunned the running world at the 2026 London Marathon by becoming the first person to officially break two hours, finishing in 1:59:30. That time beat the previous record of 2:00:35 by over a minute, a huge leap in a sport where records are usually broken by seconds. To put it in perspective, he ran all 26.2 miles at an average pace of about 4 minutes and 34 seconds per mile, faster than most people can sprint for even a minute. The race was incredibly competitive too, with second place finishing in 1:59:41, just 11 seconds behind. While Eliud Kipchoge famously ran 1:59:40 during INEOS 1:59 Challenge under controlled conditions, Sawe’s performance is the first time the sub-two-hour mark has been officially recorded in a real race.⁵