Market View: Week of Apr. 10, 2026
ECONOMIC REVIEW¹
The ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index declined to 54.0 in March, lagging the consensus expectation of 54.9 but remaining solidly in expansion territory.
The decline in March follows an acceleration in February that saw the index expand at the fastest pace in over three years (56.1), and underlying activity continues to show strength despite uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict.
The major measures of activity were mixed, with business activity declining to 53.9 but new orders jumping to 60.6 – the highest level in more than three years.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.4% in February, matching expectations and accelerating from January’s 0.3% increase. This marked the steepest monthly increase in PCE prices in a year.
On an annual basis, PCE rose by 2.8% in February, matching January’s reading and expectations.
Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.4%, matching the previous month’s 10-month high.
Over the last year, Core PCE decreased to 3% in February from 3.1% in January of 2026.
Super Core PCE, which looks at services ex-housing, food, and energy, came in at 3.2%, ticking down from the January reading of 3.3%.
The Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 3.3% in the last year, having accelerated rapidly in the last month, as higher energy prices resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacted the broader economy.
Energy prices rose 10.9% in the last month, meaningfully increasing the headline figure.
In one bright spot on the inflation front, Core CPI rose just 0.2% in the last month and is up 2.6% in the last year.
The increase came entirely from core services as core goods prices remained flat.
How does the most recent economic data impact you?
Although investors are beginning to see the impact of the Iran conflict, as March inflation readings capture the rapid rise in energy prices since the Strait’s closure, the underlying economic fundamentals remain solid.
Core inflation readings appear relatively unaffected at this point, business activity in the services sector is expanding, and new orders indicate a further improving outlook lies ahead.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has historically looked past energy price spikes, particularly those it views as stemming from temporary disruptions, but additional rate cuts have likely been pushed back somewhat.
A LOOK FORWARD¹
This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI), existing home sales, import prices, and the Fed’s Beige Book highlight the economic calendar.
How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?
Producer prices will provide a look upstream at how rising energy costs are impacting wholesale prices, and the Beige Book will take a deep dive into all the critical measures impacting monetary policy decisions.
MARKET UPDATE²
| Market Index Returns as of 4/10/26 | WTD | QTD | YTD | 1 YR | 3 YR | 5 YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3.58% | 4.45% | -0.07% | 28.69% | 20.03% | 12.17% |
| NASDAQ | 4.68% | 6.09% | -1.29% | 37.80% | 24.81% | 11.32% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 3.07% | 3.45% | 0.15% | 21.20% | 14.57% | 9.30% |
| Russell Mid-Cap | 2.34% | 3.47% | 4.81% | 28.03% | 14.76% | 7.36% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap) | 3.99% | 5.40% | 6.33% | 43.28% | 15.37% | 4.65% |
| MSCI EAFE (International) | 4.42% | 7.42% | 6.09% | 35.94% | 16.02% | 8.93% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 7.44% | 10.85% | 10.67% | 51.14% | 18.58% | 5.62% |
| Bloomberg US Agg Bond | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.29% | 6.48% | 3.59% | 0.28% |
| Bloomberg High Yield Corp. | 0.90% | 1.31% | 0.80% | 11.08% | 8.96% | 4.35% |
| Bloomberg Global Agg | 0.88% | 1.14% | 0.06% | 4.31% | 2.88% | -1.37% |
OBSERVATIONS
All major equity indices improved substantially on the week, as news that the U.S., Israel, and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
Among domestic large-cap indices, the Nasdaq led for the week (4.68%), followed by the S&P 500 (3.58%) and the Dow Jones (3.07%).
Mid-cap stocks clawed back some ground (2.34%), and small-cap stocks continued their strong performance YTD, improving nearly 4% last week.
Developed international stocks climbed 4.42%, and emerging markets jumped higher, returning 7.44%.
Bonds rallied domestically, internationally, and across the credit spectrum, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index improving 0.33%, international bonds rising 0.88%, and high-yield corporate bonds returning 0.90%.
BY THE NUMBERS
Rory McIlroy Survives a Roller Coaster to Win the Masters Again:
After a tumultuous final round at last year’s Masters, where he coughed up a five-shot lead on the back nine and found himself in a playoff, Rory McIlroy’s caddie reminded him of one important truth: They would have absolutely taken this scenario before the tournament started. McIlroy might have been the defending champion, but he was teetering on the brink of collapse once again. A superstar with a knack for making everything as difficult as possible for himself, the 36-year-old from Northern Ireland held a historic six-stroke lead after the first two rounds, only to let it vanish entirely the next day. Still, going into the final day, he was tied for the lead. The roller coaster continued on Sunday until he suddenly found his swing, right when his chances for back-to-back titles were beginning to fade. And by the time it was over, McIlroy had made history. As he slipped back into his green jacket, he became just the fourth player who could call himself a back-to-back Masters champion.³
Goldman Sachs Reports Record Quarter in Banking and Trading:
Goldman Sachs said its profit jumped 19% in the first quarter, powered by a resurgence in deal activity and volatile markets. But the bank’s stock fell around 3% as investors worried the war in Iran would slow Wall Street’s performance for the rest of the year. Chief Executive David Solomon said he expected companies would still push ahead on plans for dealmaking despite the war-related volatility. Solomon said that the executives he has spoken with “believe they have an opportunity to drive scale and consolidation” that wasn’t possible under the Biden administration. Banks have especially benefited from a growing economy and huge investments into artificial intelligence, which helped spur a rush of deals in the first quarter. It was Goldman’s second-best quarter ever for overall profit and revenue, falling behind only the first quarter of 2021, when a rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic helped turbocharge results.⁴
Disclosures
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1 Data obtained from Bloomberg as of 4/10/26.
2 Data obtained from Morningstar as of 4/10/26.
3 Rory McIlroy survives a roller coaster to win the Masters again.
4 Goldman Sachs Reports Record Quarter in Banking and Trading
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